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Private Equity

The Gap Between Paper Value and Realizable Value Is Reshaping PE Credibility and Returns

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The next phase of private equity is being defined not only by how value is created, but by how it is measured. With secondary market discounts widening and exits occurring below prior marks, LPs are increasingly questioning whether reported valuations reflect reality. As market multiples stagnate and leverage becomes less effective, the gap between paper […]

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Private Equity

The Private Equity Industry is facing a Valuation Crisis.

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PE funds routinely mark-up investments on day one. According to the Wall Street Journal, StepStone Private Markets recorded a 15% gain on 34 investments purchased the same day, using subjective NAVs from other fund managers rather than observable market prices. According to Forbes, the zombie backlog – 31,000 companies, 5.6-year average hold periods, 3:1 investment-to-exit

The Private Equity Industry is facing a Valuation Crisis. Read Post »

MOIC

Fixing returns in aging PE portfolios through execution

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Maximum Multiple on Invested Capital (MOIC) is no longer achieved through structuring alone—it is built through EBITDA growth, cash flow conversion, and disciplined leverage. While the core equations of private equity remain unchanged, delivering target returns now requires greater precision in underwriting and execution. MOIC is driven by EBITDA growth, multiple expansion, and deleveraging, but

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Private Credit

Private Credit Markets. Non-correlated? 2007 Called. Think again.

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In the summer of 2007, Bear Stearns blew up two structured credit funds and our LP hotline lit up. Pundits and talking heads told us it was contained. We told ourselves we’re non-correlated – different strategy, different assets, insulated from the chaos. We’re good. Fourteen months later, Lehman collapsed and we learned the hardest lesson

Private Credit Markets. Non-correlated? 2007 Called. Think again. Read Post »

Private Equity

The End of Financial Engineering: Can Private Equity Still Deliver Returns?

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Private equity’s playbook—cheap debt, multiple expansion, and clean exits—no longer works. From 2015–2021, low rates (0.5%–2.5%) fueled leveraged buyouts and growth. By 2023, rates rose ~500 bps, pushing borrowing costs to 7–9% and compressing returns. At the same time, private credit is tightening, refinancing is harder, and EBITDA growth is less reliable. Margins are under

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Private Equity

AI Isn’t Saving Private Equity. It’s Exposing It.

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Artificial intelligence is now part of almost every conversation in private equity, from deal sourcing to infrastructure to portfolio operations. There’s a lot of activity, but across many portfolios, the actual impact is still limited. After years of working with operating businesses, that’s not surprising. The issue isn’t access to AI, it’s how it’s being

AI Isn’t Saving Private Equity. It’s Exposing It. Read Post »

Private Equity

80% of private equity firms could be zombies within a decade.

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That’s not my number. That’s from the CEO of EQT – one of the largest PE firms in the world. Here’s the math: There are 15,000+ private capital firms operating today. Only about 5,000 have successfully raised a fund in the last seven years. Half of those may not raise again. The result? Thousands of

80% of private equity firms could be zombies within a decade. Read Post »

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